A powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean could become the strongest on record and contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year ever recorded, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
Scientists say climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific could exceed previous records, with some forecasts predicting the Niño 3.4 region will rise above 3C.
Senior BoM climatologist Dr Zhi-Weng Chua said: “There is a realistic chance that the peak anomaly of this event will rank in the top events, with a chance it could rank as the highest. It is remarkable, and it shows just how much heat there is in the ocean.”
“It’s perhaps not a surprise, given climate change and how oceans have been gathering heat in the last few decades.”
Climate scientist Dr Zeke Hausfather said in The Climate Brink newsletter: “It looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”
“The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.”
Australian National University climate scientist Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick said: “Every time I look at it, I have this sense of awe but deep concern. I think it will be one for the record books. But we are waiting with bated breath.”
The BoM said El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to southern and eastern Australia, although local impacts can vary.
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