A rapidly strengthening El Niño could significantly alter winter weather across the United States, bringing warmer conditions to northern states and wetter weather across much of the south.
El Niño occurs when Pacific Ocean waters along the equator become warmer than average, triggering atmospheric changes that influence weather around the world.
The current event is forecast to reach Super El Niño strength by October and has a nearly 70 percent chance of becoming the strongest on record by the end of the year.
Nat Johnson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, described to CNN, its potential strength as “something that’s very unusual, if not a once in a lifetime type of (strength)”.
During a typical El Niño winter, the jet stream shifts south, increasing storms across the southern US while northern areas become warmer and drier.
NOAA’s early December-to-February outlook shows above-average temperatures are possible across the northern US and more than half of the Lower 48.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are possible across Southern California, southern states and parts of the East Coast, with the strongest signal in the Southeast.
Florida could also face an increased risk of severe thunderstorms.
However, NOAA cautions that an exceptionally strong El Niño does not guarantee historically extreme weather.
Climate change is also contributing to warmer winters, while snowfall has declined across much of the US.
