• Insiders from PPP & PML-N do not rule out possibility of major constitutional changes in the days to come
• Curriculum, population welfare, mines & minerals may return to Centre
WHEN asked recently whether a possible 28th Amendment was in the offing, PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari feigned ignorance, saying that his party had not been conveyed any such proposal from the ruling PML-N.
Shortly thereafter, Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar tried to reassure his government’s allies, saying that if such an amendment were to be brought forward, it would only go ahead following consultation with coalition partners.
But behind the denials and protestations, insiders from both parties admit that the possibility of a major constitutional change being made cannot be ruled out in the days to come.
So what is the hullabaloo about, and what significance does it hold in the current political context?
In background discussions, some PPP leaders believe that while the official line may be different, the party “feels” that “something is cooking”. While publicly, the PML-N has been at pains to point out that there is no such thing as the “28th Constitutional Amendment” in the offing, the matter of nomenclature seems to be more semantic than substantial.
To borrow from Shakespeare’s lexicon, what we call an amendment could be a legislative package “by any other name”. Whether it would “smell as sweet” really depends on which side of the political spectrum you find yourself.
If the grapevine is to be believed, PPP insiders say, the feared legislative changes — even if they do not amount to a complete roll-back of the 18th Amendment —could still deal a serious blow to the financial autonomy and powers over certain key portfolios that were devolved to the provinces after 2010.
In background interviews, the PPP leaders say that nothing has been formally shared with the party.
“What we hear from friends in other parties and our sources is that there is no such plan to completely roll back the 18th Amendment,” a PPP leader says.
“But yes, there are definitely a few things on our radar: the provinces’ financial space, control over certain ministries, and, obviously, the federal government shifting the financial burden of BISP onto the provinces.”
Another leader explained the matter more clearly, saying the proposed legislation may seek to shift control over three major components — curriculum, population welfare, and mines and minerals — back to the Centre.
“Not sure about other areas, but these three will definitely be taken away,” the leader says. “There is also a lot of noise about the NFC Award and the provinces’ share, which is likely to be cut. How that will happen is still unclear, but it appears certain that it will be affected.”
Time for a change?
The 18th Amendment, passed under the PPP-led government in 2010, was a landmark legislation in the country’s constitutional scheme, as it devolved powers to the provinces in key areas of public services, including health, women’s development, social welfare and local government.
Under the amendment, the provinces’ share of federal resources was set at 57.5 per cent. The federal government would spend the remaining on debt servicing, development programmes, defence, etc.
Calls for a review of the 18th Amendment have been made several times in the past, and have come from different sides of the political spectrum. This time around, however, there seems to be more substance to them.
Even the PML-N believes that “it’s high time to review such arrangements,” a source within the party told Dawn.
“There’s a very strong feeling among the party leadership that the current arrangement of [how] resources [are distributed] among the provinces has created unsustainable financial problems,” the insider says.
One of the biggest cheerleaders of such a move would be the MQM-Pakistan. Also an ally of the Shehbaz Sharif government in the Centre, the party has publicly said on several occasions that the 18th Amendment has failed to empower citizens.
They believe that whenever the next amendment is made, it would “definitely” address its long-standing demand of empowered local system with constitutional guarantee.
“It’s on the record that when the 27th Constitutional Amendment was [enacted], the MQM-P had a detailed and lengthy meeting with PM Shehbaz Sharif, where he promised that the issue of empowered local governments system would be taken up in the next amendment,” senior MQM-P leader Aminul Haq told Dawn.
“We are quite confident that it’s going to happen, sooner or later. It’s not just MQM-P, but other allies like the PML-Q and Aleem Khan’s Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party are also on board,” he said.
Mr Haq also claimed that during that meeting with the PM, they had asked him to prevail upon the PPP to back this amendment as well.
When asked about the dent this possible legislation would put in the post-18th Amendment constitutional scheme — to which the MQM-P was also a signatory — the party leader said, “[Such] things always evolve over the years, and new things emerge to replace the old ones.”
He also claimed that it was a misconception that the upcoming legislation would necessarily hurt the 18th Amendment. “In fact any amendment that ensures empowered local governments is in the true spirit of democracy and the 18th Amendment itself,” he added.
Revisiting the NFC
Journalist and analyst Suhail Warraich, considered a keen observer of the political scene in Punjab, is also of the opinion that talk of another constitutional amendment is mere speculation at this point.
However, when asked for his view, Mr Warraich said that he did not foresee PML-N ranks putting up much of a resistance over any changes to the 18th Amendment, unlike the PPP.
But going forward, he was quite clear that the PML-N would never support any provisions relating to the creation of new provinces.
Some analysts also believe that the federal government will want to expand its financial space, and for that purpose the provinces’ share in the National Finance Commission is likely to be reduced.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat), believes that constitutional protection for local government empowerment and the re-definition of provinces’ NFC share are likely to be key issues in any upcoming amendment.
“As we know, MQM-P has an agreement with the Shehbaz Sharif government on strengthening the local government system, so there is a possibility that these details could be included in the proposed amendment,” he said.
He also refers to the “constitutional guarantee” which is explicitly outlined in Article 160, Clause (3A) of the Constitution — introduced by the 18th Amendment — ensuring that the provinces’ percentage share in the divisible pool of the NFC Award cannot be less than what they were allocated in the previous award.
“So I think that particular clause of the 18th Amendment could come under review. The Centre may argue that it should be flexible depending on the needs and available resources,” he added.
Published in Dawn, May 18th, 2026
