China is walking a diplomatic tightrope, juggling the balance between Tehran and Washington. Beijing is pushing for peace efforts to end the Iran conflict as it looks forward to a high-stakes summit with President Donald Trump in May.
China’s mid-May meeting with Trump is shaping how the country deals with the Middle East crisis in coming months. The world’s second largest economy is heavily reliant on the Middle East for half of its fuel and seeking to safeguard its energy supply chains.
By maintaining a modulated stance on the conflict, China has preserved enough back-channel influence that President Trump recently credited Beijing with facilitating Iran’s participation in the peace talks held in Pakistan last weekend.
According to Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent organisation, “You’ve heard President Trump repeatedly mention how the Chinese talked to the Iranians. That puts them in the room with negotiators, even if it’s not a seat at the table.”
In the backdrop of Trump’s transactional approach, China is seeking to advance its goal on trade and specifically on Taiwan during the highly-anticipated summit, as reported by the sources privy to the matter.
The dominant view in Beijing is to “butter him up, give him a red-carpet welcome and preserve strategic stability”, one source said.
Since the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, China has been involved in diplomatic activity to taper off the Middle Eastern crisis while refraining from issuing strong criticism of Trump’s conduct of the war.
On Tuesday, Xi Jinping urged the international community to uphold national sovereignty, peaceful coexistence, international rule of law and global security.
According to some analysts, China’s diplomatic efforts regarding the Middle East is “more theatre than statecraft.”
Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution, said, “While the Iranians are keen to play up their relationship with China and have asked Beijing to serve as a guarantor of a ceasefire, Beijing has shown zero interest in assuming such a role.”
“Beijing appears content to remain on the sidelines as the United States bears the brunt of the pressure,” Kim added.
Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, explained that Beijing’s ideal outcome revolves around maintaining the no-string-attached yet lucrative relationships with anti-western countries like Iran and at the same time preserving its opportunity of arrangement with the US.
Talking about the highly-awaiting Xi-Trump summit, some experts shed light on the narrowly focused nature of the meeting. The leaders are expected to evade topics related to market access, AI governance and manufacturing capacity.
Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, “There is zero chance China will reach some sort of grand bargain with the United States.”
