IN many ways, the year 2025 was an epochal moment for Pakistan. The country stood up to an aggressor much larger in size and resources, instilling renewed confidence and self-esteem in the Pakistani nation. It also discredited Indian narratives linking terrorism with Pakistan.
It all started with a terrorist incident in the Pahalgam area of Indian-occupied Kashmir last April. As usual, India’s knee-jerk reaction was to blame Pakistan.
However, this time around, the world refused to endorse India’s falsehood. Pakistan proposed impartial investigations, but India declined, and instead, carried out military strikes against nine targets in Pakistan on May 7. The latter responded robustly through a multi-domain, integrated and hybrid warfare. With seven of its planes down, including French Rafale, India sought help from the US for a ceasefire, but bizarrely, refused to acknowledge America’s role.
Ever since, India’s global profile has continued to fall in the eyes of the West, which was disappointed that the country that was being prepared as a counter-balance to China could not even handle Pakistan. A panicked Indian leadership decided to tilt towards Russia and China, which had their own questions about New Delhi’s viability as a strategic partner. India’s self-proclaimed strategic autonomy has become a difficult balancing act vis-à-vis major powers.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia entered into a strategic mutual defence agreement with Pakistan with a clause that aggression against one would be considered aggression against the other. This has added another layer to Pakistan’s deterrence regime against potential aggressors.
The US also broke its decade-long stalemate with Pakistan and began to explore investments in the latter’s mineral, oil and gas sectors. Pakistan was also invited to the high table to negotiate an end to the genocidal war Israel had waged against Palestinians living in Gaza.
For its part, China was pleased that some of its defence technology shared with Pakistan had been tested in a combat environment with favourable results. CPEC’s second phase has also been launched. Regional states, particularly Iran, Bangladesh and the Central Asian Republics, have further warmed up to Pakistan.
Going into the next year, worsening ties with the Afghan Taliban is a major concern for Pakistan. India, which had little feeling for the Taliban previously, has now embraced them to create a two-front situation for Pakistan.
India has kept open the option of resuming conflict with Pakistan through its Operation Sindoor, which is presently on pause. Given an unfavourable international environment and the embarrassing defeat in May, it is unlikely to resume kinetic aggression against Pakistan soon. However, most observers believe that India will increase its covert war against Pakistan through proxies such as the TTP and BLA. So, Pakistan will need to keep itself prepared to counter any potential Indian misadventure.
The world refused to endorse India’s falsehood.
Pakistan’s domestic scene has also seen progress. With inflation falling, fiscal deficits reducing, and reserves rising, the country continues on the path of economic stabilisation. The economy is increasingly being digitised, and efforts are underway to broaden the tax net.
However, we continue to live beyond our means. Floods have played havoc with those associated with agriculture. Unemployment, particularly among the youth, is another test for policymakers. Devolution of power and resources for local governments are largely missing, defeating the spirit of the 18th Amendment.
The security situation remains precarious, particularly in view of terrorist attacks by the TTP and BLA. One positive is the firm action taken against the TLP, sending a strong signal to radical groups that there would be zero tolerance for violent extremism.
At a time when the world order is under severe strain and international law is being violated with impunity, most countries are reflecting on their priorities, either leaning towards their own regions, or making alignments with like-minded countries, or opting for self-reliance. Since South Asia remains the least integrated region, due mainly to India’s hegemonic designs, Pakistan and other South Asian countries have few options but to fend for themselves.
In this turbulent era, Pakistan must seek ways to attain political stability and foster its economic resilience against shocks brought about by a chaotic world order. The leadership must undertake structural reforms for the economy and lessen the bureaucratic red tape that is strangulating potential investments. With dozens of reports containing doable recommendations already on the table, the question is not what should be done. The real test for policymakers is to muster the political will to do what must be done.
The writer is chairman of Sanober Institute Islamabad.
Published in Dawn, December 21st, 2025
