Reports are emerging of a sharp surge in suspicious oil market activity linked to a surprise foreign policy announcement by US President Donald Trump. Approximately fifteen minutes before the Trump announcement, traders bet hundreds of millions of dollars on oil contracts.
The trade volume for WTI crude oil stood at 733 contracts; in just one minute, it jumped to 2,007 contracts. A similar pattern occurred in Brent Crude, where volumes exploded from 2 to over 1,600 contracts in a single minute. Analysts note that these volumes are significantly higher than typical Monday morning activity, especially since there were no public signs of US-Iran talks at the time.
After threatening to obliterate Iran’s power plants on Saturday, President Trump posted on Truth Social at 07:04 ET Monday that “very good and productive conversations” had taken place regarding a resolution to hostilities. Immediately following the post-dropping 14% to as low as $84 per barrel-while stock markets bounced back.
Analysts further suggest the unusual activity indicates some traders may have had prior knowledge of the President’s decision. In this connection, a spokesperson stated the administration does not tolerate any official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge. The Iranian government called the reports of talks fake news, suggesting the claims were a tactic to manipulate financial and oil markets. Nonetheless, this incident follows a similar flurry in January 2026, where crypto-gamblers on Polymarket made massive profits betting on the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro before he was seized by US forces.
