A relationship that once saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigning for Donald Trump before a roaring Texas crowd has turned sharply cold. This week, the US president slapped a 50% tariff on Indian goods, citing New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases, and derided India’s economy as “dead” — an unusually public humiliation for a leader who has prided himself on elevating India’s global standing.
“All that has plunged India into a moment of soul-searching, exposing limitations to its power on the world stage despite its gargantuan size and growing economy,” the New York Times reported. Modi himself conceded he “might pay a personal political price” for the dispute.
The reversal is striking. In 2014, Modi wooed Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gujarat, sharing a “riverfront swing” as a symbol of warmth — only for Chinese troops to trigger a border standoff mid-visit. Years of military deployments in the Himalayas followed, souring ties with Beijing and pushing Modi toward Washington.
By Trump’s first term, Modi had broken protocol to openly support his reelection bid in Houston. His confidence in US alignment deepened under President Biden, who overlooked Modi’s partisan gestures and strengthened India’s role as a counterweight to China. “AI stands for ‘America and India,'” Modi joked to Congress last year.
That goodwill fractured when Trump not only targeted India with trade penalties but also placed Pakistan’s leadership on “equal footing” during a spring border crisis — despite once calling Pakistan a “state sponsor of terrorism.” The move inflamed nationalist sentiment in India and rattled Modi’s carefully curated strongman image.
Now, Modi is recalibrating. Later this month, he will make his first trip to China in seven years, though relations remain strained over the Himalayan border and Beijing’s military support for Pakistan. At the same time, he is deepening ties with Russia, pledging to expand the “India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” during a call with President Vladimir Putin, and dispatching his national security adviser to Moscow to prepare for Putin’s visit to New Delhi.
Former ambassador Nirupama Rao warned that Trump’s actions had “upended the strategic logic of a very consequential partnership” built over decades. She predicted “very pragmatic strategic recalibrations” to safeguard Indian interests, including a return to “strategic autonomy” — a Cold War — era doctrine of avoiding overdependence on any single ally.
Trump’s tariff announcement, due to take effect later this month, may also be a pressure tactic. Before the focus shifted to Russian oil, Indian officials say both sides had been close to sealing a first-phase trade agreement, with India offering to expand US energy and defense imports and cautiously open its agriculture market.
Amitabh Kant, until recently Modi’s G20 envoy, noted that Trump has used similar “strong-arm tactics” with other allies and predicted a deal was still possible — but added, “Even if the trade issues are sorted out, the trust would have been lost forever.”
If the Chinese border crisis offers clues, Modi will likely seek a quiet resolution. Then, he avoided open escalation while leveraging the threat from Beijing to deepen US defence cooperation — a balance that allowed relations to recover.
For now, Modi is couching his defiance in terms of protecting livelihoods. “India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,” he told supporters after the tariff announcement.
