UN warns extreme cold, disrupted rainfall worsen flood recovery, strain food, health systems
Pakistan is gearing up for what experts warn may be one of its coldest winters in decades, driven by the return of La Niña and complicated by the lingering fallout from catastrophic monsoon floods.
According to a UN OCHA situation report developed in coordination with the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG), abnormal Pacific surface cooling, the hallmark of La Niña, will likely trigger across-the-board temperature declines and disrupt normal precipitation patterns across Pakistan. The forecast warns that northern Punjab, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan may receive below normal rainfall, while southern Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan are expected to have more typical rainfall.
La Niña is a large-scale oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean fall below average for an extended period. This cooling strengthens trade winds and shifts tropical rainfall patterns, often leading to significant weather disruptions around the world. In South Asia, La Niña typically brings colder and drier conditions in winter, while increasing the intensity of monsoon rains in preceding months. Its effects are cyclical but can last for several years, influencing everything from agricultural yields to regional disaster patterns.
Read: Cooling La Nina may return in coming months: UN
For communities already battered by floods, especially in K-P and G-B, the warnings carry dire implications. The UN report highlights worsening vulnerabilities in flood-impacted zones, where homes were destroyed, farmland submerged, and recovery resources stretched thin. In Punjab alone, the Food and Agriculture Organisation has estimated that approximately 1.2 million hectares remain inundated, decimating major crops like rice, cotton, and sugarcane. Beyond crop loss, damage to livestock, agricultural tools, and fodder stocks has further jeopardized food security and livelihoods.
Beyond agriculture, the chilling forecast includes elevated risks to health and infrastructure. Stagnant floodwaters may fuel outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, and diarrhoea, along with vector-borne diseases like dengue and malaria. Many families, estimated at more than 229,760 households, lost shelter in the floods and remain exposed to the elements. Disruptions in schools and health facilities further obstruct recovery.
Read More: Freezing months ahead, warn climate experts
Meteorologically, La Niña emerges when trade winds intensify and funnel warm waters away from the eastern equatorial Pacific, cooling surface temperatures and triggering chain reactions in global climate systems. This shift, combined with a marginally negative Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to push Pakistan’s winter into harsher-than-normal extremes. The World Meteorological Organisation has also flagged a roughly 60 percent chance of La Niña’s continuation through December 2025.
As Pakistan transitions from immediate flood response to early recovery, the looming cold adds another layer of urgency. Relief agencies are sounding alarms that existing stocks and funding are already depleted, and new infusions are needed to sustain basic services through this dual climate challenge.
