IN the end US President Donald Trump got everything he wanted. When he imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India and described it as a “dead economy”, India vowed never to bend to US bullying. Things, it appears, have changed.
The story began last year when Trump imposed first 25pc and then 50pc tariffs on Indian exports. This caused a furore in India. First, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s grabby hugs and over-enthusiastic handshakes with Trump (Modi was among the first leaders to kiss the ring upon re-election) had convinced many Indians that they had an airtight relationship with Washington. As proof, they cited the bromance displayed during Trump’s first term. All that hand-holding must have meant something. Second, Indians could not believe that Pakistan scored a diplomatic victory following Operation Sindoor. Watching Pakistan included in summits and getting special mention from the president likely hurt even more than the tariffs.
On Indian TV shows, which are a masterclass in propaganda, news anchors suggested the tariffs would only hurt Americans and India would be largely unscathed. Much was said about self-sufficiency, national interest and protecting Indian farmers. India was never going to stop buying Russian oil, it was alleged. India’s darling Prime Minister Modi — that champion of the common man — would never relent on opening the Indian agricultural market to US goods. This was a victorious moment, Modi-bhakts declared. India would never bend.
Unsurprisingly, India was doing quite the opposite behind the scenes. According to The Times of India, Modi’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval travelled to the United States soon after the tariffs were imposed. There, Doval met Secretary of State Marco Rubio and conveyed that India wanted to put acrimony behind it and resume trade talks. To domestic audiences, Doval insisted that he had also made clear India would not be bullied. Apparently, he remained in contact with Rubio four more times before the year was out.
New Delhi’s inflated view of itself has received a reality check.
Later, when Trump’s adviser on South Asia Sergio Gor arrived in New Delhi, further talks were held, led on the Indian side by Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. To domestic audiences, the BJP-led government kept insisting Modi was not bending and that his visits to Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘showed’ America that India had options. The impact of such signalling or even more recent deal with the EU on Washington’s assessment of India’s importance is doubtful. US strategic documents released last year suggested a focus elsewhere, indicating that India’s own inflated assessment of its standing in Trump’s worldview was inaccurate and vastly hyped. Here again nationalism and India’s belief in its own importance impeded a realistic assessment of its position vis-à-vis global power shifts.
This month, India caved. The proof lies in the pudding, or the deal the Modi government agreed to. Under its terms, according to Trump, the US reduced its tariffs on Indian goods from 50pc to 18pc, while India agreed to slash its own duties on US goods to zero. This is a huge shift. India had imposed tariffs of up to 200pc on certain American products — something that irritated Trump so much that he mentioned it numerous times.
The new arrangement means the US continues to charge higher tariffs on Indian goods than before Trump 2.0, while India has dismantled many of the barriers it once defended. India further agreed to US demands regarding Russian oil purchases, which was a major sticking point that led to the tariffs in the first place. Additionally, India agreed to increase purchases of US energy and other goods.
Finally, and almost unbelievably, India agreed to give US agricultural goods access to the Indian domestic market while maintaining only a few key protections. This goes against all the loud promises Modi and his party had made about protecting Indian farmers, who form a substantial share of the economy. In the tumult unleashed since, the BJP has again begun mouthing reassurances about protecting the country’s farmers — a confusing posture that shows the vast chasm between trade negotiations abroad and the lies peddled at home.
Days after the deal, it already appears fragile. The Indian parliament has been thrown into turmoil, suggesting it may struggle to pass the agreement smoothly. This is just the sort of thing that annoys Trump, who has shown little patience for legislatures that fail to move quickly on trade commitments. The Modi government is now attempting to spin the deal as a victory, on the basis that Indian tariffs stand at 18pc while Pakistan’s are at 19pc. Sadly, this is the sort of rubbish that landed India at Trump’s feet in the first place.
The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
Published in Dawn, February 7th, 2026
