As we focus our attention on the Iran–US-Israel escalating conflicts, rising oil prices have shaken the global markets. Pakistan stands at the edge of a different but equally devastating crisis, one that flows not from geopolitics but from its rivers and skies.
Weather forecasts are pointing to a high probability of abnormal rainfall — 22 to 26 per cent above normal — in the coming monsoon season, which is just a few weeks away. This means we are potentially going to face heavy floods in 2026 once again. This highlights the spectre of a double crisis in the country this year: economic stress from war and devastation from extreme weather events in July-August. Consequently, while planning to recover from the economic impacts of the global war, Pakistan should also focus on flood management. The question is how fast and how wisely this can be done?
Despite having a proper plan — the National Flood Protection Plan-IV — initiated after the 2010 super flood, finalised in 2017, and updated in 2024 as a policy response to the 2022 mega floods. This plan consists of 375 proposed projects with an estimated cost of Rs825 billion. Despite the effort, Pakistan was once again at the mercy of floods in 2025.
This recurring crisis continues to devastate lives, displacing millions of affected people, damaging infrastructure, washing away the crops, livestock, and vegetables, and putting food security at risk. Flooding has also severely impacted the economy, costing it over $3bn.
Floods are part of the hydrological cycle, and are totally natural and even helpful, but have reached a disastrous intensity due to climate change and unplanned settlements
Floods are often presented as inherent disasters, while they are not. They become a disaster due to long-term environmental neglect and development that occurs without consideration of the natural ecosystem’s needs.
Historically, floods have enriched agricultural lands by replenishing soil fertility through nutrient-rich silt deposits, boosting agricultural productivity, replenishing groundwater, and sustaining ecosystems. Floods have shaped large riverine civilisations, such as those along the Nile, Indus, and Ganges, among many others, where periodic floods sustained their food security for centuries. Floods have also played an important role in Pakistan by recharging its groundwater aquifers.
Floods maintain the natural regeneration of wetlands, fisheries, and biodiversity by creating ecological balance. They also expand the command area of rivers, which ultimately improves the status of grazing land for livestock that contribute to rural livelihoods.
So how did all the blessings turn into a disaster? We have modern unplanned settlements to blame, both in urban areas and even in floodplains. The real task is not to stop the floods but to adapt to them intelligently so that damage can be minimised and benefits maximised.
It is widely argued that floods are driven by climate change. This is a debate among hydrologists and climatologists over whether floods are part of the hydrological cycle or whether climate change is the real culprit behind the devastation.
On the one hand, yes, floods are part of the hydrological cycle, and they occur when river channels or drainage systems exceed their carrying capacity due to excessive rainfall, snowmelt, glacial outburst, etc. In this sense, floods are not unnatural, and climate change does not create floods. However, climate change has intensified them.
Floods have become more frequent, intense, destructive, and unpredictable sometimes. A rise in temperature increases evaporation, leading to heavier, more erratic rainfall events and quicker snow and glacier melt. This change also shifts the monsoon patterns and turns the natural process into a recurring hazard. The mega floods in 2010, 2022, and 2025 in Pakistan are connected to this abnormal monsoon behaviour, and they are also linked to climate change.
For Pakistan, during the past two decades, the frequency of floods has risen significantly. From 1980 to 2004, Pakistan experienced 30 flood events over 24 years, but from 2004 to 2014, this number rose to 35, and then to 44 from 2014 to 2024.
This demands a more comprehensive and intelligent framework to turn a disaster into an opportunity. This time, we should welcome them with quick, short-term adaptations.
Although some major structural initiatives have already been taken, Pakistan cannot afford to wait for long-term solutions. They are costly and require billions in investment. The typical water management infrastructure relies on dams, barrages, levees, and canals. But all structures, regardless of size, have a limitation: they cannot offer complete safety against extreme events.
That said, hard infrastructural solutions are almost an impossible luxury for a country like Pakistan, whose economy is in a struggling phase, fiscal space is limited, and the Iran-US war has already placed major pressure on the economy. Moreover, large infrastructures often harm ecosystems, displace communities, and pose maintenance challenges. However, focus should remain on selective and necessary infrastructure.
Short-term adaptations include letting the river flow. For this, all the rivers should be reconnected to their natural floodplains so that water can flow and spread safely instead of forcing floodwater to move through narrow channels. For this, water lakes and canals can be built at all the breaching points already identified along all the rivers. This will break down the intensity of floodwater, resulting in less damage. Other sites can be quickly added to this list.
To naturally absorb the excess water, wetlands should be restored. Afforestation and watershed management in upper catchment areas are needed to reduce the runoff. To stock up aquifers, water harvesting through recharge zoning, ponds, and wells, and even at homes.
In urban areas, water-sinking parks can be established. China’s Sponge City is an excellent example. These solutions require less capital and yield co-benefits such as biodiversity restoration and support for local livelihoods. Communities should be equipped with early warning systems and adaptive farming, and training youth for more effective evacuation planning.
The writer is an Assistant Professor at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
Email: faisalali@pide.org.pk
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 13th, 2026
