FINALLY, the debate about whether rapid population growth is beneficial or pernicious for the economy appears to be settled. While the evidence was extensive and categorical, it has taken several decades for the numbers to be absorbed by our leading economists. In the meantime, we have potentially lost billions of dollars in GDP, experienced the tragedy of several thousand maternal and child deaths, and seen a decline in per capita income as the cost of not pursuing sound population policies and actions to bring down our rapid population growth rate. While all our neighbours, most prominently Bangladesh, took clear and purposeful steps, we have complacently accepted high and even rising population growth rates since 2000.
The consensus created at DawnMedia’s Pakistan Population Summit last December confirmed several truths. First and foremost is that economic growth and prosperity for Pakistan are impossible under current demographic trends. High fertility and population growth rates are eating into an already low economic growth, resulting in greater poverty and income inequalities. There is categorical evidence that larger households with more dependents save less, spend less on education and eat lower-quality food.
Second, the expectation of a demographic dividend due to the surge in the working population is an elusive dream. In fact, this dream has been shattered by growing unemployment figures and a rising gap in the ability to generate employment to keep up with the millions of youth entering the labour force each year. The finance minister has publicly admitted that it is next to impossible, as not enough jobs are being generated to keep pace with the forecasted surge in the working-age population.
Third, it was proclaimed that urbanisation would be the engine of growth and generate employment. However, it has been pointed out by Pakistan@2050 that structural changes are required to produce more jobs. Rapid urbanisation is being led by a push out of agriculture in rural areas to escape poverty, and not as a pull factor in search of better jobs. In fact, additional jobs in new sectors only provide minimal employment.
The summit brought together a wide spectrum of participants and speakers, generating some optimism that we have turned the corner on population issues. Foremost, a media house took the initiative of organising a summit on population. Another prominent media house has just launched the Waqfa campaign to raise awareness and change behaviour. Much of this positivity is the outcome of the Council of Islamic Ideology and Population Council consultation on the concept of tawazun (balance) and birth spacing last year. This declaration has been endorsed by 37 prominent ulema supporting family planning and birth spacing for improved outcomes for mothers, children and families.
Expectations of a demographic dividend due to the surge in working numbers are misplaced.
Another hopeful sign is the unusual cross-party support for the national issue of tackling high population growth rates. The Parliamentary Forum for Population has had successful meetings over five years, discussing resource-sharing around population. Forum members passed a unanimous resolution in parliament last August.
If a consensus has emerged, why is there very little action at the national or provincial level that reflects a commitment to lowering population growth on an urgent and priority basis? This is not to undermine efforts and statements issued periodically by the provincial and federal leadership.
The need to act is immediate. There is no time for piecemeal efforts or waiting for the provinces to reach the same level of capacity and concern regarding this daunting challenge. The federal government should take the first step and become the dominant partner. It must demonstrate intent, moving beyond statements: theirs should be a policy setting and coordination role with the provinces and regions. Larger provinces, such as Punjab and Sindh, can generate their initiatives, but less-resourced provinces and regions definitely require supplemental funds from the centre.
The finance minister has been most consistent and prominent in publicly expressing that population growth is not just an impediment but an existential crisis for Pakistan. Creating the financing and resources to balance population concerns, especially in the most challenging, poorest, remotest and vulnerable parts of the country, must be his ministry’s priority. Direct financing for districts that are most vulnerable and lack the basics, preventing millions of households from accessing education, health and family planning, has to become as much of a priority as other financing reforms.
The Benazir Income Support Programme is renowned as one of the largest social protection programmes in the world. It is centred on women. Unwanted pregnancies affect the poorest women most directly, as do unwanted and mistimed births, which are not within their control. A cash transfer programme must be launched that enables poorer households to access family planning services. This programme would follow the same rationale as providing income support to women living in the poorest households through BISP.
The poorest women, when able to fulfil their unmet needs, will provide for improved health outcomes for families and create an economically powerful impetus for improving household welfare. It will present a programme that enables millions to benefit from improving other outcomes — such as their own health, household savings and children’s investments — and trigger a new turnaround dynamic.
In addition, the federal government must activate and announce the CCI mandated population fund. This population fund should be well-resourced and function under the finance ministry; it would be used to award grants to provinces and regions for additional family planning services. Grants can be directly linked with performance in improving health and related outcomes.
Finally, there is a growing consensus that population concerns will not be solved without improving educational outcomes, particularly for women and girls. The most powerful way of empowering women is through education and skills, but especially through paid work, by ensuring their safety, mobility and employability.
It is heartening that the public conversation has shifted towards putting women in the driving seat. It is high time that women’s empowerment is seen as a solution to unlocking greater economic growth by tapping into work and earnings potential and reaping the benefits of increased household savings and positive behaviour.
The writer is Country Director, Population Council.
Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2026
