An early US intelligence assessment suggests that recent airstrikes on Iran dealt only a temporary blow to its nuclear programme, delaying it by mere months.Â
The report comes as a tenuous ceasefire, brokered by President Donald Trump, takes effect between Iran and Israel.
Three sources familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters of the preliminary assessment. According to two of the sources, the assessment was prepared by the US Defense Intelligence Agency.
One of the sources said Iran’s enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated, and in fact, the country’s nuclear programme may have been set back only a month or two.
The assessment contradicted Trump’s assertion that the weekend strikes had succeeded in destroying Tehran’s nuclear programme and raised questions about further US military action if indeed the programme survived the intense aerial bombardment.
The White House said the intelligence report was “flat out wrong.”
Trump’s administration told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that its weekend strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had “degraded” Iran’s nuclear programme, short of Trump’s earlier assertion that the facilities had been “obliterated.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel, in its 12 days of war with Iran, had removed the threat of nuclear annihilation and was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its programme.
“We have removed two immediate existential threats to us – the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles,” he said in video remarks issued by his office.
Israel launched the surprise air war on June 13, hitting Iranian nuclear sites where it said Iran was trying to develop an atomic bomb and killing top military commanders in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq.
Iran, which says its uranium enrichment programme is for peaceful purposes and denies trying to build nuclear weapons, retaliated with a series of missile barrages on Israeli cities.
Earlier on Tuesday, both Iran and Israel signalled that the air war between the two nations had concluded, at least for now, after Trump scolded them for violating a ceasefire he announced at 0500 GMT.
Great victory
Israel’s military lifted restrictions on activity across the country at 8pm local time (1700 GMT), and officials said Ben Gurion Airport, the country’s main airport near Tel Aviv, had reopened. Iran’s airspace likewise will be reopened, state-affiliated Nournews reported.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country had successfully ended the war in what he called a “great victory,” according to Iranian media. Pezeshkian also told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Tehran was ready to resolve differences with the United States, according to the official news agency IRNA.
A senior White House official said Trump brokered the ceasefire deal with Netanyahu, and other administration officials were in touch with the Iranians. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran’s agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday.
Both Israel and Iran took hours to acknowledge they had accepted the ceasefire and accused each other of violating it, underscoring the fragility of the truce between the two bitter foes and the challenge of achieving lasting peace between them.
Trump scolded both sides but aimed especially stinging criticism at Israel, telling the close US ally to “calm down now.” He later said Israel called off further attacks at his command.
Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said he told his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, that his country would respect the ceasefire unless Iran violated it. Pezeshkian likewise said Iran would honour the ceasefire as long as Israel did, according to Iranian media.
Whether the Israel-Iran truce can hold is a major question given the deep mistrust between the two nations. But Trump’s ability to broker a ceasefire showed Washington retains some leverage in the volatile region.
Israeli armed forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir said a “significant chapter” of the conflict had concluded, but the campaign against Iran was not over. He said the military would refocus on its war against Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza.
Iran’s military command also warned Israel and the United States to learn from the “crushing blows” it delivered during the conflict.
Iranian authorities said 610 people were killed in their country by Israeli strikes and 4,746 were injured. Iran’s retaliatory bombardment killed 28 people in Israel, the first time its air defences were penetrated by large numbers of Iranian missiles.
Oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied worldwide in a sign of confidence inspired by the ceasefire, which allayed fears of disruption to critical oil supplies from the Gulf.
Ceasefire violations?
Earlier in the day, Trump admonished Israel with an obscenity in an extraordinary outburst at an ally whose air war he had joined two days before by dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear sites.
Before departing the White House en route to a NATO summit in Europe, Trump told reporters he was unhappy with both sides for the ceasefire breach but particularly frustrated with Israel, which he said had “unloaded” shortly after agreeing to the deal.
“I’ve got to get Israel to calm down now,” Trump said. Iran and Israel had been fighting “so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.”
Netanyahu’s office acknowledged Israel bombed a radar site near Tehran in what it said was retaliation for Iranian missiles fired three-and-a-half hours after the ceasefire was due to begin.
It did not explicitly say whether the strike on the radar site took place before or after they spoke.
The Islamic Republic denied launching any missiles and said Israel’s attacks had continued for an hour-and-a-half beyond the time the truce was meant to start.
In both countries, there was a palpable sense of relief.
“Who mediated or how it happened doesn’t matter. The war is over. It never should have started in the first place,” said Reza Sharifi, 38, heading back to Tehran from Rasht on the Caspian Sea, where he had fled with his family.
Arik Daimant, a software engineer in Tel Aviv, said: “Regrettably, it’s a bit too late for me and my family, because our house back here was totally destroyed in the recent bombings last Sunday. But as they say, ‘Better late than never’, and I hope this ceasefire is a new beginning.”
