Iceland is set to hold a national referendum on Saturday, deciding the fate of the Nordic country to join the European Union.
In a knife-edge referendum, around 273,000 eligible voters are answering Yes or No to the question, “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”
The Nordic country originally applied to join the EU in 2009 following a devastating financial crisis. However, the talks were suspended in 2013 when a government, sceptical of joining the EU, came to power.
When Iceland’s leftist government came to power in 2024 pledged to hold the national referendum on the resumption of EU membership talks but it was delayed due to rising geopolitical tensions driven by Russian and Ukrainian war ongoing since 2022.
There are some significant factors that could decide the fate of Iceland. For instance, the arguments for saying yes are based on high domestic inflation, surging mortgage interest rates, geopolitical interests marked by Ukraine-Russia conflict and Trump’s threat to overtake Greenland.
“We can’t really trust the US anymore,” said Hildur Knutsdottir, a horror fiction writer who plans to vote in favor of EU membership.
Supporters argue that voting “Yes” simply gives the government the mandate to negotiate a deal so citizens can evaluate it before holding a final referendum on actual membership.
On the other hand, some voters do not support this accession based on the concerns of sovereignty and self-reliance.
Opponents also argue that Iceland already has access to the single market via the European Economic Area, and that they don’t need Brussels to rule them, emphasizing that they built a prosperous nation on their own.
“The international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure,” Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir told Reuters last week.
“In times like these, small nations need to think carefully about where they stand and who stands with them,” she added.
The membership could be helpful for the European Union bloc as the Nordic country would be a net contributor to the EU budget. The entry of Iceland will make the integration of poorer candidate countries easy.
Speaking about the timeline, the voting runs from 9:00 am to 10:00 pm. But the race is tight and there are no exit polls. The first reliable results are not expected until Saturday at the earliest.
If Yes wins, a formal accession negotiation agreement would be negotiated and put to second and separate referendum on actual membership.
