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A significant 74% of analysts suggest that the robust gains from Samvat 2080 will be challenging to replicate.
The poll collected insights from nearly two dozen experts, including those from broking firms, mutual funds, AIF/PMS players, and independent analysts.
As Samvat 2081 approaches, the latest Moneycontrol Market Poll signals a conservative outlook for market performance. Nearly two-thirds of market experts anticipate lower returns than those witnessed in Samvat 2080, driven by valuation concerns and global uncertainties.
What Is Samvat?
In India, Samvat (or Samvat Year) refers to the Hindu lunar calendar year used widely in India, especially about the stock market. The Vikram Samvat calendar, which is followed for this purpose, was initiated by King Vikramaditya of Ujjain in 57 BCE. The start of a new Samvat year typically aligns with Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, which marks the beginning of the Hindu New Year.
In the financial markets, Samvat holds cultural and traditional significance. Indian stock exchanges celebrate the new Samvat with a Muhurat Trading session, a special one-hour trading window during Diwali, believed to bring prosperity and wealth for the upcoming year. Financial analysts and investors often use this period as a reference point to analyse market performance from one year to the next. For instance, Samvat 2081 begins on Diwali 2024 and will last until Diwali 2025.
Moneycontrol Market Poll
Analysts Predict Moderate Gains for Broader Indices
A significant 74% of analysts suggest that the robust gains from Samvat 2080 will be challenging to replicate. The outlook is particularly cautious for BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices, where sustaining last year’s momentum may prove difficult.
Insights from Market Participants Across Sectors
The poll collected insights from nearly two dozen experts, including those from broking firms, mutual funds, AIF/PMS players, and independent analysts. Some experts, like Divam Sharma, Founder and Fund Manager at Green Portfolio PMS, foresee potential outperformance in selective sectors, though high valuations may restrict overall growth.
October Correction and Foreign Outflows Signal Challenges
October brought a sharp correction to Indian markets, with foreign investors offloading over $10 billion in equities. The Sensex and Nifty both declined by over 6%, and BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices each fell by 8%, driven by stretched valuations, geopolitical tensions, and weaker Q2 earnings.
“Time Correction” Likely Ahead: Ritesh Jain’s Perspective
Ritesh Jain, Co-founder of Pinetree Macro, expects a “time correction” or price adjustment over the next 12–18 months due to factors like slowing domestic consumption, a softening economy, and restrained fiscal spending.
The China Factor: Limited Impact on Indian Markets
Despite China’s aggressive fiscal stimulus, most experts believe that global headwinds such as Middle East tensions and China’s measures are not major risks for the Indian market’s near-term outlook.
Reflecting on Samvat 2080’s Strong Performance
Samvat 2080 saw significant gains with the Sensex and Nifty up 20% and 22%, respectively, and the BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices surging by 42% and 39%. This rally was fueled by favorable economic conditions, strong corporate earnings, and rising consumer sentiment.
Yes Securities’ Optimistic Outlook Amid Expected Policy Stability
Yes Securities forecasts positive trends for the year ahead, expecting post-election policy stability in India and monetary easing in the US. This is anticipated to enhance liquidity, support capital flows, and strengthen private investments.
Key Events to Watch in Samvat 2081
With major events like the Union Election and Union Budget behind, attention now turns to several global and domestic factors, including the US elections, China’s recovery, US bond yield trends, oil prices, and fund flows, each of which could introduce volatility to the Indian markets.
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