The division series matchups are set! World Series odds, playoff keys and predicted date of doom for all 8 teams
The 2024 MLB playoffs are rolling along!
After the wild-card round ended with a Game 3 thriller, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.
Will Shohei Ohtani‘s first playoff appearance begin with the Los Angeles Dodgers getting past the San Diego Padres in the NLDS? Will the Philadelphia Phillies take down the NL East rival New York Mets? Will the New York Yankees go from the American League’s No. 1 seed to the World Series — or will the Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals or Detroit Tigers get in their way?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team’s last game and a name to watch for all eight remaining World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
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Jump to a team:
NYY | CLE | KC | DET
LAD | PHI | SD | NYM
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-66 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Royals (56.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 17.4% | ESPN BET odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Let’s not get too cute here: It has to be Aaron Judge or Juan Soto, since they’ve carried the Yankees all season. It’s hard to imagine New York winning without those two producing. Judge hasn’t been great in his postseason career (.211 average, .772 OPS); Soto was terrific as a 20-year-old for the Nationals in 2019 (especially in the World Series) but didn’t do much for the Padres in 2022. Let’s go with Judge, since he’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities if Soto is getting on base in front of him. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … They don’t play sound, fundamental baseball. The Yankees have premier talent highlighted by three superstars: Judge, Soto and Gerrit Cole. They can pitch and they can really hit. But they also have a propensity to get sloppy on defense, depend too much on the home run and make puzzling mistakes on the basepaths — they rank last in the majors in baserunning, according to FanGraphs. Every out and every run counts that much more in the postseason. An ability to give outs away and an inability to manufacture runs against elite pitching can haunt even the most talented teams in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The love affair between Soto and the greater New York City metropolis prolonged through the summer and will spill into the fall. Presumptions that Soto and his massive persona would be an ideal fit for the outsized stakes of baseball in the Bronx have been validated by a dominant season overshadowed only by that of his own teammate. But as Judge can attest, Yankees legends are made exclusively in October. And though his performance in prior postseason stints with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres has been spotty, nobody likes the spotlight more than Juan José Soto. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Even if the Yankees aren’t your cup of tea, there is no denying that dynamic duos such as Judge and Soto are a historical rarity. According to Baseball Reference’s batting runs above average metric, the five highest single-season totals for teammates have been four Lou Gehrig-Babe Ruth seasons, and the 2024 tandem of Soto and Judge. More than a simple stacking of two Hall of Fame-level hitters, there is something about the back-to-back pairing of them in the nightly Yankees lineup that is somehow even greater than the considerable sum of their parts. With Soto reaching free agency whenever New York’s postseason run ends, there is no guarantee we’ll see this again. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 92-69 | AL Central champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers (56.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 13.3% | ESPN BET odds: +900
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Can we just pick the entire bullpen? No? Four relievers have won a World Series MVP (Larry Sherry, Rollie Fingers, John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera) so don’t rule out Emmanuel Clase. Indeed, while Jose Ramirez is the obvious choice, his game hasn’t translated to the postseason, with just two home runs in 124 at-bats. Let’s go with Clase; if Cleveland wins, it’s probably because he gets four World Series saves. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … The starting rotation isn’t good enough. Cleveland posted the best bullpen ERA in baseball by a substantial margin. Clase has been the best closer in the majors. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin might be the sport’s stoutest bridge to the ninth inning. The rotation is another matter. No. 1 starter Shane Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery after two starts. Triston McKenzie, two years removed from a breakout season, performed so poorly he was sent to Triple-A in June and hasn’t returned to the majors. Without them, Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA in 31 starts) emerged as the top starter for a rotation that finished tied for 23rd in ERA and 24th innings pitched. The Guardians will need to piece together the pitching to make a title run. But too much reliance on the bullpen might be unsustainable. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Guardians acquired Lane Thomas before the trade deadline hoping he would fortify an offense in perpetual need of production. August was brutal, but Thomas showed what he’s capable of amid a torrid month of September. He has been hitting mostly behind Josh Naylor, but also in front of Ramirez at times. His presence will be critical in October. The Guardians finished in the middle of the pack in OPS and runs per game this season. They need someone besides Ramirez, Naylor and Steven Kwan to produce consistently. They need the Lane Thomas who provided 28 home runs and a .783 OPS for last year’s Washington Nationals. He might have tapped back into that. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: 1948. That’s when Lou Boudreau, Larry Doby, Satchel Paige, Bob Feller & Co. led Cleveland to the World Series. Good times. Harry Truman was president. Jack Kerouac was gallivanting around the country with Neal Cassady. Don Draper was still living as Dick Whitman, years away from landing on Madison Avenue. The franchise has not won it all since then, giving it the longest active title drought in baseball. This team, with an offense that has contact, athleticism and just enough power, and armed with the sport’s best bullpen, is built to quench that thirst. To do so, the Guardians will have to topple some superstars — Judge, Ohtani among the possibilities — which would make it that much sweeter to watch. — Doolittle
No. 5 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
ALDS opponent: Yankees (43.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 10.0% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 10
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Bobby Witt Jr. would be the apparent choice, although he slowed down a bit in September after his ridiculously high level of play throughout the summer and opponents might force others in the lineup to beat them. Let’s go with Salvador Perez, the sentimental pick here. He had a nice postseason the last time the Royals were in it back in 2015, slugging .517 with four home runs for the World Series champions. He’s a better hitter now than he was then (although nobody chases more than Perez), and he won’t be catching every game this time either. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … The starting pitching doesn’t mask the bullpen’s shortcomings. The Royals (barely) completed their remarkable 30-win year-to-year turnaround behind their elite starting pitching, which finished second in baseball in both ERA and innings pitched. The bullpen is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23st in ERA and near the bottom in win probability added. The Royals, who entered the playoffs without a designated closer, tried bolstering the bullpen by acquiring Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, two right-handers with high strikeout rates, before the trade deadline. Erceg was effective in a few roles, including closer, but Harvey was placed on the injured list after six appearances with Kansas City and won’t pitch again in 2024. Wild-card teams have made World Series runs in recent years with shallow bullpens by aggressively deploying starting pitchers. That’s a possibility for Kansas City. But at least a few relievers will need to step up. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Don’t forget how this stirring Royals season began: Witt, their homegrown superstar, signed a massive contract extension that officially made him the face of their franchise. Then he went out and continued to play excellent shortstop defense, mash a bunch of homers, run like his hair was on fire and put together an age-24 season that would have been worthy of an MVP if not for the exploits of Aaron Judge. Now we’ll all have the joy of watching one of baseball’s budding superstars perform on its grandest stage. The Royals will probably go as Witt goes, and he got off to a strong start driving in key runs in both of their wild-card round wins. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: What’s your favorite type of fairy tale? Rags to riches? Ugliness transforms to beauty? The hero emerges to save the day? The Royals have it all. Witt’s historic season has been the face of the Royals’ remarkable turnaround in 2024, but there is so much more to Kansas City’s stunning rise. How about old-school starting pitching? How about top defenders all over the field? The Royals aren’t just a great story — they’re really fun to watch. Beyond all that, it’s easy for bad teams to hide behind their badness as a reason to not invest in the roster. Certainly, that has happened in Kansas City in the past, but not this time. Trying isn’t the whole story, but it is an unavoidable first step. If they keep winning, this lesson becomes that much more abject. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
ALDS opponent: Guardians (43.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 7.7% | ESPN BET odds: +900
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 10
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Somebody who steps up to carry the offense. Parker Meadows was so bad early on (.131 average in 35 games) that the Tigers sent him back down to the minors. After being called back up in August, he put up an OPS over .800 the final two months and cut his strikeout rate from 35% to 20%. Throw in some excellent defense in center field (88th percentage in outs above average) and he has a chance to create big plays on both sides of the ball. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … Tarik Skubal runs out of gas. The Tigers mounted their incredible run to a playoff spot behind the best second-half ERA in baseball. Skubal, the overwhelming AL Cy Young favorite, fronted the charge with dominance every five days. The left-hander became the seventh pitcher since 2000 to win a league’s pitching Triple Crown, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. Skubal logged at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts, which allowed manager A.J. Hinch to regularly increase bullpen usage on days Skubal didn’t pitch — especially after Jack Flaherty was traded at the deadline. No other Tigers pitcher logged more than 112 1/3 innings this season. Skubal was everything Detroit could hope for against the Astros in the wild-card round. For the formula to work deep into October, Skubal must remain a workhorse. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Spencer Torkelson struggled throughout the year and Colt Keith was up and down, but two other promising young Tigers position players have blossomed this season: Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene, the fifth overall pick in 2019, made the All-Star team and gave the offense some much-needed pop. Carpenter, a steal in the 19th round of the same draft, surged through April and May, missed the next two-plus months with a back injury and then picked up right where he left off. Both were red hot in September. Both must continue to be in order to support the Tigers’ pitching staff. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s face it: You don’t have any idea what this team is doing in an October bracket — or how they took down the Astros. To call the Tigers a Cinderella team is too easy; Detroit’s rise has been flat-out shocking, and if you say you saw it coming, you are either fibbing or your name is Nostradamus. In five weeks, the Tigers improved their playoff probability from 1% to 100%. That just doesn’t happen. — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 95-64 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Padres (57.0% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 18.2% | ESPN BET odds: +375
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … If you want the storybook ending to the 2024 playoffs, it will be Shohei Ohtani — playing in his first postseason. But let’s go with Freddie Freeman, who seems to have the style of hitting that works well in October, the right combination of discipline, contact and power. He’s a career .285 hitter in the postseason with an OPS over .900 and got a hit in all six World Series games for the Braves in 2021. Ohtani and Mookie Betts will get the spotlight, but Freeman — as long as his late-season ankle injury isn’t serious — can put the Dodgers over the top. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … Their superstars don’t produce. The number of injuries to the Dodgers’ starting rotation is alarming. But the rotation was also a concern last year and it ultimately wasn’t the reason they were stunned by the Diamondbacks in a three-game NLDS sweep. Los Angeles gave up four runs in each of the final two games. The Dodgers scored two. A year earlier, the Dodgers combined to score 12 runs in a four-game NLDS loss to the Padres. Betts is 2-for-25 over the past two postseasons. Freeman went 1-for-10 last year. Ohtani just recorded one of the most impressive seasons in history and will win NL MVP, but he has never played in the MLB postseason. The Dodgers aren’t going anywhere if their stars go silent. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ohtani played the 866th game of his career on the night of Sept. 19, at that point the most among active players who had yet to appear in baseball’s postseason. He proceeded to — as you’ve probably heard by now — put together one of the greatest single-game performances ever while on his way to starting the 50/50 club and leading the Dodgers to a playoff clinch. While he languished in Anaheim over these past six years, fans all over the world longed to see Ohtani play meaningful games on baseball’s grandest stage. And if the 2023 World Baseball Classic was any indication for what that might feel like, they’re in for quite a ride. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s see if we can get through this without mentioning Ohtani. (Oops!) Well, let’s just call it historical validation. The Dodgers, since 2013, have sustained a high level of success that has rarely been replicated in baseball annals. For all of that dominance, they have ended just one season with a win and that title — 2020 — is always going to have a “yeah, but …” attached to it. The Dodgers have been one of the game’s great dynasties, but they probably need a championship in a normal season for people to remember them as such. –– Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 95-67 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Mets (56.9% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 13.7% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Starting pitchers rarely win World Series MVP honors these days — only Stephen Strasburg in 2019, Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Cole Hamels in 2008 have won in the past 20 years — but Wheeler would be the best bet to do it this postseason. He has been great for a long time and just had his best regular season. He has performed well the past two postseasons (2.42 ERA). He’s efficient enough to pitch deep enough into games to impress the voters. Just don’t expect any complete games (Johnny Cueto threw the last in the World Series in 2015). — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … Rust trumps rest. OK, so that can’t really be a reason. Or can it? The Phillies are as well rounded as any team in baseball. They have a top-flight starting rotation, bullpen and offense. They boast a veteran roster that has experienced it all. This team is better than the Philly teams that advanced to the World Series in 2022 and fell one game short of returning in 2023. Both times the Phillies were a wild-card entrant, and both times they toppled the mighty Braves, the NL East champs, in the NLDS. This time, the Phillies will benefit from (or be hindered by?) a bye to the NLDS after winning their first division title since 2011. They will not roll from the regular season straight into October madness. Will that matter? It’s a debate waged every year. Maybe it will for the Phillies. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: What might separate this Phillies team from other great ones of recent years is the depth of the pitching staff, with five members making the 2024 All-Star team. Nobody embodies that better than Cristopher Sanchez, the 27-year-old left-hander who has shown he can hold up over a full season. Sanchez, who made just one brief start in last year’s postseason, has been mostly dominant since the middle of August. He has been especially good at home, making him a logical candidate to start as early as Game 2 of the division series. Regardless of the venue, he and Ranger Suarez will have to step up behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola when the lights get brightest. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Bryce Harper, full stop. OK, Harper is a polarizing player to some, for reasons that aren’t readily apparent. Still, he’s a great, great player, a future Hall of Famer who goes about things the right way, and greatness is always worth appreciating. Harper has excellent career postseason numbers, especially for the Phillies portion of his career, but he is stuck on zero rings. The Phillies have a lot of terrific players who play hard looking for their first title, but it’s Harper more than anyone who needs a ring to fill out his impeccable résumé. — Doolittle
San Diego Padres
No. 4 seed | 93-69 | NL wild card
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (43.0% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 11.2% | ESPN BET odds: +600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 11
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Manny Machado got off to a slow start at the plate as he recovered from offseason elbow surgery (hitting .241 with five home runs through May). As the offense surged in the second half, however, Machado crushed it, averaging nearly an RBI per game. He hasn’t been great in the postseason — .221 average with a .274 OBP in 41 games — so maybe he’s due for a big October. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … Robert Suárez‘s recent struggles bleed into the postseason. The Padres arguably had the best bullpen in baseball once they acquired Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. But Suárez hasn’t played his part of dominant closer over the final two months. Suárez, an All-Star, had a 1.42 ERA, .517 OPS against, and 24 saves in 27 chances across 44 appearances through Aug. 7. Over his next 20 outings, he posted a 5.66 ERA with a .752 OPS against and three blown saves in 15 save opportunities. He probably would’ve had another blown save if Miguel Rojas hadn’t grounded into a game-ending triple play with Shohei Ohtani on deck on Sept. 24. It’s been choppy for Suárez, but the Padres have stuck with him in the ninth inning. The leash could be shorter deeper into October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Padres had the audacity to take a 20-year-old lifetime shortstop who hadn’t played above Double-A, tell him to learn center field and ask him to help make up for the loss of Juan Soto. And Jackson Merrill has had the audacity to do more than even the most optimistic of folks could have expected from him. Merrill, now 21, has played an elite center field and has been an even better hitter, providing power and speed and a knack for coming through in clutch situations — an element that famously eluded last season’s group. He might win the Rookie of the Year despite Paul Skenes‘ transformative season in Pittsburgh. But first, he’ll star in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Maybe it’s hard to watch a game and root for an executive, but when it comes to assertive roster-building, no one does it with more alacrity than A.J. Preller. No matter where the Padres are or what they have to spend, he pursues titles with the zeal of a Swiftie on the trail of a beaded bracelet. This year’s team was built for this moment, especially when it comes to the powerhouse collection of closer-level relievers Preller has collected during his manic searches of the transaction market. The Padres are one of the five MLB teams that have never won a World Series. Thanks to Preller, they might be better positioned to exit that list than ever before. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
NLDS opponent: Phillies (43.1% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 8.4% | ESPN BET odds: +1400
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Pete Alonso is heading to free agency, and the fan favorite belongs in the Big Apple for his entire career. What better way to ensure a return to the Mets than winning World Series MVP honors? It was an up-and-down regular season for him, but he’s certainly capable of bashing some big home runs as he proved with his dramatic home run to lift New York past Milwaukee in the wild-card round. — Schoenfield
If they go home soon, it will be because … Francisco Lindor struggles to play through back pain. Lindor was Ohtani’s closest competition for NL MVP until his back flared up on Sept. 13. He played just one inning over the next 13 days before returning to the Mets’ lineup Friday. Neither Lindor nor the Mets have disclosed a diagnosis, but Lindor said testing showed “no structural damage” and he received a facet injection two Thursdays ago to expedite the healing process. The Mets went 6-6 without him to stay afloat, but October will be different. Lindor is the team’s heartbeat. He’s their leadoff hitter, shortstop, and clubhouse leader. He does the three jobs at an elite level. Winning multiple playoff series without a healthy Lindor would be a tall task. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: If the Mets are going to make a surprisingly deep run in October, it’s going to take a lot of work from their pitching staff. And nobody will be more important than Sean Manaea, who provided five strong innings in Game 2 against the Brewers. After back-to-back years with bloated ERAs in San Diego and San Francisco, Manaea went back to featuring his sinker instead of his four-seamer and has been perhaps the most astute addition in David Stearns’ first year atop baseball operations. Manaea seems all but certain to opt out of his two-year contract at season’s end. Before then, the 32-year-old left-hander will help lead a Mets rotation that might not get Kodai Senga back. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Sustainability. The Mets aren’t exactly a bargain team, but they are a little leaner compared with last season. Stearns has built a more efficient, deeper roster and made sure the Mets’ younger players got a chance to establish themselves at the big league level. Over the years, the Mets have tended to be less sustainable and more reckless, which can be fun but wearisome. You’d like to see the new approach pay off in October because, if it does, and you consider this model as a foundation to justify some ramped-up spending to come, you can start to ponder a new golden age in Mets baseball. That’s worth rooting for, though, admittedly, that might work for you only if you already root for the Mets. Smart management is always fun! — Doolittle
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